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Aaron Allen
Aaron Allen

The Three Political Orders and the Three Waves of the Future: A Summary of A Brief History of the Future by Jacques Attali (PDF)


A Brief History of the Future Jacques Attali Pdf 13




If you are interested in knowing how our world will look like not only in the coming decades but also in a century from now, you might want to read A Brief History of the Future, a book by Jacques Attali. In this book, Attali, a world-renowned economist and political adviser, predicts how history will unfold in three waves: planetary empire, planetary war, and planetary democracy. He also analyzes how history has evolved in three political orders: ritual, imperial, and mercantile. He identifies nine cores of capitalism that have dominated different regions and periods. He explains how each core has its own logic, culture, and innovation. He also examines how the current core, the United States, is facing decline and decay. He warns us about the dangers and opportunities that await us in the future. He urges us to act responsibly and wisely to shape a better world for ourselves and our descendants.




A Brief History Of The Future Jacques Attali Pdf 13


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In this article, we will summarize Attali's main arguments and insights from his book. We will also provide some critical reflections on his predictions and recommendations. We hope that this article will help you understand Attali's vision of the future and inspire you to think about your own role in it.


A very long history




Attali begins his book by tracing the evolution of human societies from prehistory to the present. He argues that history flows in a single direction that no upheaval can permanently deflect. He claims that history is driven by two forces: nomadism and market. Nomadism is the tendency of humans to move from one place to another in search of resources or opportunities. Market is the tendency of humans to exchange goods or services for mutual benefit or profit. These two forces have shaped human civilization since its origins.


Attali also argues that history is organized by three political orders: ritual, imperial, and mercantile. Each order has its own dominant group that controls the society. The ritual order is dominated by religious powers that impose their beliefs and rituals on the masses. The imperial order is dominated by military powers that conquer and rule over territories and peoples. The mercantile order is dominated by economic powers that control the production and distribution of wealth. Each order has its own core, center of power and prestige, that attracts and influences other regions. Each order also has its own cycle of rise and fall, as new cores emerge and challenge the old ones.


A brief history of capitalism




Attali then focuses on the mercantile order, which he considers the most relevant and influential in the modern world. He argues that capitalism emerged from the mercantile order and transformed the world with its logic of accumulation, innovation, and competition. He identifies nine cores of capitalism that have dominated different regions and periods: Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amsterdam, London, Boston, New York, Los Angeles, and Hong Kong. He explains how each core has its own logic, culture, and innovation that make it successful and powerful. He also shows how each core faces challenges and crises that lead to its decline and replacement by a new core.


Attali argues that capitalism has brought unprecedented progress and prosperity to humanity, but also unprecedented inequality and instability. He claims that capitalism has created a global market that connects all regions and peoples, but also a global crisis that threatens all regions and peoples. He warns that capitalism is reaching its limits and needs to be reformed or replaced by a new system.


The end of the American empire




Attali then examines the current core of capitalism, the United States, which he considers the most powerful and influential in the 20th century. He argues that the United States became the dominant core of capitalism after World War II, when it emerged as the leader of the free world and the defender of democracy. He praises the United States for its achievements in science, technology, culture, and politics. He also acknowledges the United States for its contributions to global peace and development.


However, Attali also criticizes the United States for its failures and flaws. He argues that the United States has abused its power and privilege in many ways. He accuses the United States of exploiting other regions and peoples for its own benefit. He blames the United States for creating or aggravating many global problems, such as terrorism, pollution, poverty, and disease. He predicts that the United States will face decline and decay in the 21st century, as it loses its economic, political, and cultural influence to other regions and actors. He suggests that the United States should accept its fate and cooperate with other powers to build a better world.


First wave of the future: planetary empire




Attali then predicts that a new core will emerge in Asia, most likely in China or India, in the first half of the 21st century. He argues that this new core will create a planetary empire that will dominate the world with its economic, military, and cultural power. He expects that this empire will bring stability and order to a chaotic world, but also oppression and exploitation to many regions and peoples. He foresees that this empire will face resistance and competition from other regions and actors, such as Europe, Africa, Latin America, Russia, Japan, or Islam.


Attali also predicts that this empire will face many challenges and crises in its quest for global domination. He anticipates that this empire will have to deal with environmental degradation, demographic pressure, social unrest, ethnic conflicts, religious extremism, nuclear proliferation, cyberattacks, pandemics, and natural disasters. He warns that this empire will have to balance its interests and responsibilities in a complex and fragile world.


Second wave of the future: planetary war




Attali then predicts that a global conflict will erupt in the mid-21st century between the planetary empire and its rivals or enemies. He argues that this conflict will be triggered by a combination of factors: economic crisis, political tension, ideological clash, territorial dispute, resource scarcity, or terrorist attack. He expects that this conflict will involve conventional weapons as well as unconventional weapons such as biological agents or cyberweapons. He fears that this conflict will escalate into a nuclear war that will devastate many regions and peoples.


Third wave of the future: planetary democracy




Attali then predicts that a new political order will emerge from the ashes of war in the second half of the 21st century. He argues that this order will be a planetary democracy that will foster peace, prosperity, and freedom for mankind. He expects that this democracy will be based on universal values and human rights that will be respected and protected by all regions and peoples. He foresees that this democracy will be supported by global institutions and organizations that will coordinate and regulate human affairs. He hopes that this democracy will be inspired by a new spirit of solidarity and cooperation that will overcome the divisions and conflicts of the past.


Attali also predicts that this democracy will bring unprecedented progress and happiness to humanity. He anticipates that this democracy will enable human development in all aspects: economic, social, cultural, scientific, technological, and spiritual. He projects that this democracy will solve many global problems, such as poverty, disease, pollution, or violence. He speculates that this democracy will unleash human creativity and potential in all fields and domains. He envisions that this democracy will open new horizons and possibilities for human exploration and discovery.


Conclusion




Attali's vision of the future is both optimistic and pessimistic. On one hand, he predicts that humanity will face many dangers and difficulties in the 21st century, such as war, crisis, or catastrophe. On the other hand, he predicts that humanity will overcome these challenges and achieve a better world in the 22nd century, such as peace, prosperity, or freedom. He believes that history is not predetermined but shaped by human choices and actions. He implies that we have a responsibility and an opportunity to influence the course of history and the fate of humanity.


Attali's vision of the future is also controversial and provocative. Some might agree with his analysis and insights, while others might disagree or challenge them. Some might find his predictions realistic and plausible, while others might find them unrealistic or implausible. Some might appreciate his recommendations and suggestions, while others might reject or ignore them. Regardless of our opinions or preferences, Attali's vision of the future invites us to think critically and creatively about our present and our future.


FAQs




  • What is the main message of Attali's book?



The main message of Attali's book is that history has a direction and a logic that can be understood and anticipated. He argues that history is organized by three political orders (ritual, imperial, and mercantile) and three waves of the future (planetary empire, planetary war, and planetary democracy). He claims that we can predict how our world will look like in a century from now by analyzing how history has evolved in the past.


  • Who is Jacques Attali and what is his background?



Jacques Attali is a French economist, writer, and political adviser. He has a PhD in economics from the École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales (EHESS) in Paris. He has taught at several universities in France and abroad. He has written more than 60 books on various topics such as economics, politics, history, culture, philosophy, religion, art, music, or science fiction. He has advised several French presidents such as François Mitterrand or Emmanuel Macron. He has also founded or led several international organizations such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) or Positive Planet.


  • How reliable are Attali's predictions?



Attali's predictions are based on his analysis of historical patterns and trends. He uses his knowledge and expertise in economics, politics, history, culture, and other fields to make informed guesses about the future. However, his predictions are not certain or definitive. They are subject to change or error depending on many unpredictable factors such as human behavior, natural events, technological innovations, or random occurrences. Therefore, his predictions should be taken with a grain of salt and not as absolute truths.


  • How relevant are Attali's predictions for today?



Attali's predictions are relevant for today because they help us understand our current situation and prepare for our future challenges. They provide us with a framework and a perspective to analyze our world and its problems. They also provide us with a vision and a goal to aspire to and work towards. They encourage us to think globally and act locally to make a positive difference in our world.


  • How can we read Attali's book?



Attali's book is available in PDF format online. You can download it from the following link: A Brief History of the Future - Jacques Attali.pdf. You can also buy it from online or offline bookstores. You can also borrow it from libraries or friends. You can read it in any order or manner that suits your preference or interest. You can read it for information, education, inspiration, or entertainment.


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